Possible Change of Extratropical Cyclone Activity due to Enhanced Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate Aerosols—Study with a High-Resolution AGCM

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Abstract
To investigate the possible impacts of enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols on extratropical cyclone activity, two 20-yr time-slice experiments—the control run and the global warming run—are performed with a high-resolution AGCM (T106) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the control run, the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979–98 and present-day CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations. In the global warming run, the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979–98 plus the monthly mean anomalies of SST and sea ice at about the year 2050 obtained from a transient climate change experiment with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled ocean–atmosphere model with a low resolution of R15. The equivalent amounts of CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations at about the year 2050 as used in the GFDL R15 model are prescribed. First, the performance of the high-resolution AGCM (T106) in reproducing the extratropical cyclone activity of both... Abstract To investigate the possible impacts of enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols on extratropical cyclone activity, two 20-yr time-slice experiments—the control run and the global warming run—are performed with a high-resolution AGCM (T106) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the control run, the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979–98 and present-day CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations. In the global warming run, the atmosphere is forced by the observed SST and sea ice of 1979–98 plus the monthly mean anomalies of SST and sea ice at about the year 2050 obtained from a transient climate change experiment with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled ocean–atmosphere model with a low resolution of R15. The equivalent amounts of CO2 and sulfate aerosol concentrations at about the year 2050 as used in the GFDL R15 model are prescribed. First, the performance of the high-resolution AGCM (T106) in reproducing the extratropical cyclone activity of both...