Potential Economic Consequences of the Entry of an Exotic Fungal Pest: The Case of Soybean Rust

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Abstract
An analysis of the economic consequences of a virulent race of the soybean rust pathogen, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, becoming established in the USA was conducted. The analysis uses an econometric-simulation model to estimate the consequences of soybean rust under 2 alternative environmental and grower response assumptions. Although profits to some soybean farmers and producers of other feed grain would rise, total losses to consumers and other sectors of the economy are forecasted to exceed $7.2 billion/yr even with a conservative estimate of potential damage. The extent and nature of the these losses depend on the assumed severity and spread of the disease.

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