An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts

1 April 1963

journal article
Published by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) in Management Science

Vol. 9 (3) , 458-467
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458

Abstract

This paper gives an account of an experiment in the use of the so-called DELPHI method, which was devised in order to obtain the most reliable opinion consensus of a group of experts by subjecting them to a series of questionnaires in depth interspersed with controlled opinion feedback.

Keywords

DATA ACQUISITION
DATA REDUCTION
FEEDBACK
CONTROL
MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
DELPHI METHOD
INTERVIEWING
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
QUESTIONNAIRES
STRATEGIC BOMBING
DETERRENCE
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS