Statistical Models for Predicting Stripe Rust on Winter Wheat in the Pacific Northwest

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Abstract
Statistical models developed for predicting stripe rust (caused by Puccinia striiformis) on winter wheat cultivars Gaines, Nugaines and Omar at Pullman, Washington, also predicted disease intensity at 4 other locations (Lind, Mt. Vernon and Walla Walla, Washington; and Pendleton, Oregon) in the Pacific Northwest when the negative degree days data used to develop the models were first standardized (NDDZ). There was no significant difference between the measured mean disease intensity and the mean disease intensity predicted by the NDDZ model at any of the sites. Positive degree days accumulated at the sites partially explained the model''s small, but consistent, underprediction at Mt. Vernon and overprediction at Lind, Walla Walla and Pendleton. A model for predicting disease intensity by using macrometeorological conditions can be useful at other locations within a synoptic weather region.

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