Prediction of Lactate Threshold and Fixed Blood Lactate Concentrations from 3200-m Time Trial Running Performance in Untrained Females*

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Abstract
The present study examined the effectiveness of a 3200-m time trial run for predicting V̇O2 and running velocity at lactate threshold (LT), and fixed blood lactate concentrations (FBLC) of 2.0,2.5, and 4.0 mM and peak in untrained women. Thirty-nine female subjects completed a V̇O2peak/LT test and a 3200-m time trial run. Twenty-eight subjects were randomly assigned to a validation sample and the remaining subjects were used for cross-validation purposes. In the validation sample, V̇O2 measurements at LT, FBLC of 2.0, 2.5, 4.0 mM, and peak were 22.5, 29.2, 31.2, 36.5, and 38.5 ml/kg·min-1, respectively. Velocities at LT, FBLC of 2.0, 2.5, 4.0 mM, and peak were 107.1, 129.7, 136.6, 155.1, and 163.2 m/min, respectively. Regression analysis in the validation group revealed that the 3200-m time trial was an accurate predictor of velocities at LT, FBLC of 2.0, 2.5, 4.0 mM, and peak with correlations of r = 0.70, r = 0.84, r = 0.85, r = 0.87, and r = 0.95, respectively, and standard errrors of estimate ranging from + 9.5 m/min (for velocity peak) to + 13.7 m/min (velocity LT). Vor V̇O2 prediction, correlations ranged from r=0.61 (3200-m time vs V̇O2 LT) to r = 0.77 (3200-m time vs V̇O2 peak) with the standard errors of estimate ranging from±4.18 (V̇O2 2.0 mM) to±4.87 ml/kg·min-1 (V̇O2 4.0 mM). Results for the cross-validation subjects revealed that, for both velocity and V̇O2, correlations between actual and predicted values were high, ranging from r = 0.75 (V̇O2 peak) to r = 0.87 (velocity 4.0 mM) and that SE scores were similar to the SEE observed for the validation group. It was concluded that in untrained women performance on a 3200-m time trial accurately predicts both V̇O2 and velocity at LT, FBLC of 2.0, 2.5, 4.0 mM, and peak. The present findings have application for exercise prescription in untrained women.