PREDICTORS OF MORTALITY IN CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY-DISEASE - 15-YEAR FOLLOW-UP-STUDY

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Abstract
The relative usefulness of various initial findings in predicting survival is reported for 200 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease followed for approximately 15 yr. After 5 yr of follow-up, subjects 65 or more yr of age showed a poorer survival rate than younger subjects. After controlling for age, the percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s after administration of bronchodilator was the best prognosis indicator. In subjects less than 65 yr of age, the presence or absence of cor pulmonale further improved the prediction of subsequent mortality. Regardless of initial findings there was wide individual variability in prognosis, and factors relating to this variability remained obscure. No difference in survival rate was noted between the 178 male patients enrolled in Chicago [Illinois, USA] 15 yr age and the 100 similarly impaired men enrolled in Tucson [Arizona, USA] approximately 7 yr ago.

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