Potential Changes in the Thermal Habitat of Great Lakes Fish after Global Climate Warming
- 1 March 1990
- journal article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Transactions of the American Fisheries Society
- Vol. 119 (2) , 254-264
- https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(1990)119<0254:pcitth>2.3.co;2
Abstract
We estimated potential changes in the size of thermal habitat of representative cold-, cool-, and warmwater fish for southern Lake Michigan and the central basin of Lake Erie before and after simulated global climate warming. Observed midlake thermal structures were modeled (BASE) and then manipulated with three general circulation climate models (OSU, GISS, GFDL) that projected warmer climates when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were doubled. Under BASE conditions, on an annual basis, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush had the largest thermal habitat in southern Lake Michigan, coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch and yellow perch Perca flavescens had smaller thermal habitats, and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides had none. Even for lake trout, the suitable thermal habitat was only 5–20% of the upper 200 m through the year. With rare exceptions, thermal habitat increased for species in all thermal guilds for all climate-warming scenarios. No thermal habitat was estimated for coldwater fis...Keywords
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