Prediction of decisions from a higher ordered metric scale of utility.

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Abstract
The predictive efficiency of the decision theory model based on higher ordered metric measurement of utility was compared with that of the objective value model. Federal prisoners served as subjects, and cigarettes (negotiable in prison society) were the commodity. Two hypotheses were tested: (1) subjects will make decisions so as to maximize expected utility rather than expected objective value, and thus the predictions of decisions based on subjects'' higher ordered metric scales of utility will be more accurate than those based on objective value, and (2) the latency times of those choices which are not predicted successfully by the principle of maximization of expected utility will be longer than the median latency time of all choices. The hypotheses were confirmed at the .025 and .001 levels respectively. The implications of these findings for decision theory are discussed.
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