National road casualties and economic development

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Abstract
Objective: This paper explores why traffic fatalities increase with GDP per capita in lower income countries and decrease with GDP per capita in wealthy countries. Methods: Data from 41 countries for the period 1992–1996 were obtained on road transport crashes, injuries, and fatalities as well as numbers of vehicles, kilometers of roadway, oil consumption, population, and GDP. Fixed effects regression was used to control for unobservable heterogeneity among countries. Results: A 10% increase in GDP in a lower income country (GDP/Capita Conclusion: In lower income countries a rise in traffic‐related crashes, injuries, and deaths accompanies economic growth. At a threshold of around $1500–$8000 per capita economic growth no longer leads to additional traffic deaths, although crashes and traffic injuries continue to increase with growth. The negative association between GDP and traffic deaths in rich countries may be mediated by lower injury severity and post‐injury ambulance transport and medical care. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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