Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium

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Abstract
This paper asks whether adjustment processes over real time help to “select” the long-run outcome in a model of industrialization, where multiple stationary states exist because of increasing returns in the manufacturing sector. “History” alone cannot in general determine where the economy will end up. Self-fulfilling expectations often make the escape from the state of preindustrialization (the takeoff) possible. The global bifurcation technique is used to determine when an underdevelopment trap exists and when a takeoff path exists. The role of government policy and agricultural productivity in industrialization are then considered.

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