Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Human Exposure Assessment at a Superfund Site
- 1 August 1994
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Risk Analysis
- Vol. 14 (4) , 433-439
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00261.x
Abstract
This work presents a comparison of probabilistic and deterministic health risk estimates based on data from an industrial site in the northeastern United States. The risk assessment considered exposures to volatile solvents by drinking water ingestion and showering. Probability densities used as inputs included concentrations, contact rates, and exposure frequencies; dose-response inputs were single values. Deterministic risk estimates were calculated by "reasonable maximum exposure" (RME) approach recommended by the EPA Superfund program. The RME noncarcinogenic risk fell between the 90th and the 95th percentile of the probability density; the RME cancer risk fell between the 95th percentile and the maximum. These results suggest that in this case (1) EPA's deterministic RME risk was reasonably protective, (2) results of probabilistic and deterministic calculations were consistent, and (3) commercially available software Monte Carlo software effectively provided multiple risk estimates recommended by recent EPA guidance.Keywords
This publication has 4 references indexed in Scilit:
- The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of RiskRisk Analysis, 1992
- Bivariate Distributions for Height and Weight of Men and Women in the United StatesRisk Analysis, 1992
- Lognormal Distributions for Water Intake by Children and AdultsRisk Analysis, 1992
- Distribution and Expected Time of Residence for U.S. HouseholdsRisk Analysis, 1992