DECAY PREDICTION OF 1963-21 USING U.S. NAVAL SPACE SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS

Abstract
The multiple launch of 1963-21 suffered a malfunction in the orbital injection motor that left the orbiting bodies in the transfer ellipse rather than the intended circular orbit of 500 miles. Because of the approximately 100- mile-high perigees, the periods of the several objects decayed to reentry in time intervals of some 2 to 8 weeks. Early observation suggested that decay rates were approximately inversely proportional to the ballistic coefficients. From this, it was possible to predict the reentry times of the longer lasting satellites from the behavior of the first one to reenter. Simple curve fitting was tried as a method of refining predictions.

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