Trends in Fire Occurrence in the Arizona Upland Subdivision of the Sonoran Desert, 1955 to 1983

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Abstract
Using U.S. Forest Service fire occurrence records, we found that during the 29-year period 1955 to 1983, 1611 fires burned a total of 41,447 ha in the 391,000-ha desert portion of Tonto National Forest, Arizona (TNF). Lightning-caused fires, though fewer in number, burned approximately twice the area of fires set by people. Fires were numerous from May through August, but area burned was greater during June than all other months combined. Using average annual hectares burned and subtracting areas of overlap between fires, we estimated that 294 years were required for all parts of the TNF desert to burn. Ignoring overlap, estimated time required for an area of equal size to the TNF desert to burn is 274 years. Increasing fire occurrence during the 29-year period studied might be due to wetter-than-normal winters toward the end of the period, fuel provided by exotic annual plants, improved fire detection and reporting, and ignition by people.

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