Solar model uncertainties, MSW analysis, and future solar neutrino experiments

Various theoretical uncertainties in the standard solar model and in the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) analysis are discussed. It is shown that two methods give consistent estimations of the solar neutrino flux uncertainties: (a) a simple parametrization of the uncertainties using the core temperature and the ncuelar production cross sections; (b) the Monte Carlo method of Bahcall and Ulrich. In the MSW analysis, we emphasize proper treatments of correlations of theoretical uncertainties between flux components and between different detectors, the Earth effect, and multiple solutions in a combined ${\mathrm{\chi }}^2$ procedure. In particular the large-angle solution of the combined observation is allowed at 95% C.L. only when the theoretical uncertainties are included. If their correlations were ignored, the region would be overestimated. The MSW solutions for various standard and nonstandard solar models are also shown. The MSW predictions of the global solutions for the future solar neutrino experiments are given, emphasizing the measurement of the energy spectrum and the day-night effect in Sudbury Neutrino Observatory and Super-Kamiokande to distinguish the two solutions.