Predictions of terrestrial vegetation responses to nuclear winter conditions

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Abstract
Plant strategy concepts have been used to formulate predictions of terrestrial vegetation sensitivity and potential for recovery in nuclear winter scenarios. The main conclusions are that: (1) Resistance to damage by lowered temperature and irradiance during the acute phase will be greatest in plants of unproductive biomes, habitats or late successional communities but these same plants face the highest risks of local extinction in circumstances where there is widespread destruction of the established vegetation; (2) Survival and recovery will be enhanced in plant populations maintaining a persistent bank of buds or seeds within the soil; (3) Resilience will be greatest in vegetation where cycles of destruction and regeneration are already a normal feature of the vegetation dynamics; (4) Where severe vegetation damage occurs in temperate and tropical regions, recolonization will involve further expansion of many of the mobile, early‐successional herbs and shrubs which currently dominate derelict ex‐industrial or ex‐agricultural landscapes; here succession could remain truncated indefinitely over extensive areas; (5) Initial loss of predators (especially insectivorous birds) may lead to severe damage of the recovering vegetation by insect eruptions; this may lead to erratic and unusual patterns of vegetation development; (6) Species normally capable of winter or spring growth in cold conditions (many geophytes and grasses) may continue or commence shoot expansion during the nuclear winter; this would have deleterious effects and reduce their competitive ability in relation to plants which remained inactive; (7) Where there is protracted disruption of the wet‐cool, dry‐hot seasonal pattern of Mediterranean climates, severe effects may be expected in plants with determinate life‐cycles.