Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere

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Abstract
Geopotential anomalies ranging from the Earth's surface to the middle stratosphere in the northern hemisphere are dominated by a mode of variability known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is represented herein by the leading mode (the first empirical orthogonal function) of low‐frequency variability of wintertime geopotential between 1000 and 10 hPa. In the middle stratosphere the signature of the AO is a nearly zonally symmetric pattern representing a strong or weak polar vortex. At 1000 hPa the AO is similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation, but with more zonal symmetry, especially at high latitudes. In zonal‐mean zonal wind the AO is seen as a north‐south dipole centered on 40°–45°N; in zonal‐mean temperature it is seen as a deep warm or cold polar anomaly from the upper troposphere to ∼10 hPa. The association of the AO pattern in the troposphere with modulation of the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex provides perhaps the best measure of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. By examining separately time series of AO signatures at tropospheric and stratospheric levels, it is shown that AO anomalies typically appear first in the stratosphere and propagate downward. The midwinter correlation between the 90‐day low‐pass‐filtered 10‐hPa anomaly and the 1000‐hPa anomaly exceeds 0.65 when the surface anomaly time series is lagged by about three weeks. The tropospheric signature of the AO anomaly is characterized by substantial changes to the storm tracks and strength of the midtropospheric flow, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe. The implications of large stratospheric anomalies as precursors to changes in tropospheric weather patterns are discussed.