Higher Vulnerable Elders Survey Scores Predict Death and Functional Decline in Vulnerable Older People

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES‐13) score predicts risk of death and functional decline in vulnerable older adults.DESIGN: Longitudinal evaluation with mean follow‐up of 11 months (range 8–14 months).SETTING: Two managed care organizations in the United States.PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred twenty community‐dwelling older people identified as having moderate to high risk of death and functional decline based on a VES‐13 score of 3 or higher. These older people were enrolled in the Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders observational study.MEASUREMENTS: Baseline: VES‐13 score, sex, income, cognitive score, and number of medical diagnoses. Outcome measures: functional decline and death.RESULTS: VES‐13 scores strongly predicted death and functional decline (P<.001, area under the receiver operating curve=0.66). The estimated combined risk of death and decline rose with VES‐13 score, increasing from 23% for older people with a VES‐13 score of 3 to 60% for those with a score of 10. Other measures (sex, comorbidity) were not significant predictors of death or decline over this period after controlling for VES‐13 score.CONCLUSION: The VES‐13 score is useful as a screening tool to detect risk of health deterioration in already vulnerable older populations, and higher scores reflect greater risk over a short follow‐up period.