A DISTRIBUTION MODEL FOR EGG DEVELOPMENT IN MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE

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Abstract
Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population dynamics, as well as potential for outbreaks and resulting tree mortality, are related in part to habitat temperature. As a first step in development of a life-stage, event-oriented simulation model, we have modeled the temperature-dependent development of the egg stage. The completed model includes a full description of variation in developmental rates and is capable of predicting duration and eclosion patterns for any temperature regime. This model was parameterized using data obtained from constant-temperature experiments at temperatures of 8, 10, 12.5, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C. Validation experiments were conducted for constant temperatures of 15, 17.5, 22.5, and 27.5°C and for variable-temperature regimes of 15±5 and 15±10°C. Validation results indicated that the model is capable of accurately describing the emergence curve for constant temperatures below 27.5°C. The model also faithfully represents emergence under variable temperatures of 15 ± 10°C. Potential reasons for lack of model fidelity in describing emergence at constant high temperatures and for 15 ± 5°C are discussed in the text.