Birthweight by gestational age in preterm babies according to a Gaussian mixture model

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Abstract
Objective To provide a statistically sound criterion for identifying implausibly large birthweights for gestational age.Design Review of ISTAT 1990–1994 national newborn records.Setting ItalyPopulation Forty‐two thousand and twenty‐nine single first and second liveborn preterm babies.Methods Two‐component Gaussian mixture models are used to describe the birthweight distributions stratified by gestational age. Implausibly large babies are identified through model‐based probabilistic clustering.Main outcome measures Gestational age misclassification and weight‐for‐gestational age centile curvesResults Gestational age appears under‐estimated by about six weeks in 12.3% of the cases. Large babies are equally present in males and females, but are more frequent in second‐borns than in first‐borns, even when parity‐specific models are fitted.Conclusions The approach allows for a quantification of the gestational age under‐estimate error and for data correction through model‐based clustering. Correct birthweight distributions and growth curves are also provided.

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