Testing the Hypothesis of a Worldwide Neolithic Demographic Transition

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Abstract
The signal of a major demographic change characterized by a relatively abrupt increase in the proportion of immature skeletons has been detected in a paleoanthropological database of 38 Mes- olithic-Neolithic cemeteries from Europe and North Africa. From the Mesolithic to the Neolithic, the proportion of immature skeletons increases by 20-30% over a period of 500-700 years, indicating a notable increase in the crude birth rate. This shift has been called the Neolithic demographic transition. A similar signal has been detected in an independent set of archaeological data, namely, enclosures. This paper presents results from a sample of 62 cemeteries in North America (7,755 BP-350 BP) that point to the same transition over a period of 600-800 years. The signal of a Neolithic demographic transition has been detected in a paleoanthropological database of Mesolithic- Neolithic cemeteries in Europe and North Africa (Bocquet- Appel 2002; Bocquet-Appel and Paz de Miguel Ibanez 2002). The database represents a time-space sample of a noncon- ventional marker, the proportion of immature skeletons (aged 5-19 years) in cemeteries. In a growing population the pro- portion of immature individuals (dead or alive) is high, while in a declining population it is low (McCaa 2000; Johansson and Horowitz 1986; Sattenspiel and Harpending 1983). The signal of the transition is characterized by a relatively abrupt increase in the proportion of immature skeletons; from the Mesolithic to the Neolithic, the proportion increases by 20-30%. An independent archaeological marker of demo- graphic growth the chronological variation in the frequency of some 700 enclosures and enclosure systems, has revealed a similar signal (Bocquet-Appel and Dubouloz 2004). The link between demographic growth and enclosure frequency is based on the hypothesis that the number of collective build- ings increases as the population grows. The detection of the signal in Europe has provided grounds for a prediction re- garding its worldwide impact: if a Neolithic demographic transition occurred in Europe, it must also have happened in all the independent centers of agricultural invention in the