Predicting Wolf's sunspot numbers with and without the assumption of periodicity

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Abstract
This paper provides an alternate model to the Box Jenkins time series for forecasting sunspot numbers. Both periodic and nonperiodic models are considered. The purpose is to find a model which will give both direction and magnitude of the large changes in sunspot numbers but which also gives error terms comparable to those of the Box-Jenkins techniques. We will use the statistical technique of nonparametric density estimation to develop these models.

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