Predicting the Behavior of Law: A Test of Two Models

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Abstract
Since its introduction, Black's (1976) theory of law has generated controversy (e.g., Eder, 1977; Stinchcombe, 1977), but few empirical evaluations. The most recent test (Gottfredson and Hindelang, 1979a) identified a number of empirical inadequacies and posited an alternative model to correct them. This paper assesses both Black's and Gottfredson-Hindelang's models of law, choosing as the arena of evaluation criminal law and its behavior. Analysis of data from a sample of criminal defendants identifies empirical inadequacies in both theories and raises questions about their validity, predictive power, and generality. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the substance and underlying assumptions of both theories of law.

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