Impact of Hydrologic Uncertainties on Flood Insurance

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Abstract
Traditional techniques of flood frequency estimation produce a bias in estimated frequencies such that, on the average in a great many applications, floods will occur far more frequently than estimated. This is particularly critical in flood insurance studies. It appears to be imperative that the principle of expected probability be used in flood frequency studies in order to remove or minimize this bias, both for application in actuarial studies and for flood-plain zoning.

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