Accuracy of United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin (1976–2000)
- 1 December 2001
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Vol. 82 (12) , 2749-2767
- https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2749:aoustc>2.3.co;2
Abstract
About 13% of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclone forecasts issued from 1976 to 2000 are for landfalls along the United States coastline, and 2% more are for storms forecast to make landfall in the United States but that remain at sea. Landfall position and time forecasts are skillful at all forecast time periods and are more skillful than Atlantic basin track forecasts as a whole, but within 30 h of predicted landfall, timing errors demonstrate an early bias of 1.5–2.5 h. Landfall forecasts are most accurate for storms moving at oblique or normal angles to the coastline and slow-moving storms. During the last quarter century, after adjustment for forecast difficulty, no statistically significant improvement or degradation is noted for landfall position forecasts. Time of landfall forecasts indicate no degradation at any period and significant improvement for the 19–30-h period. The early bias and lack of improvement are consistent with a conservative or “least regret” forecast and warning strategy to acco... About 13% of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclone forecasts issued from 1976 to 2000 are for landfalls along the United States coastline, and 2% more are for storms forecast to make landfall in the United States but that remain at sea. Landfall position and time forecasts are skillful at all forecast time periods and are more skillful than Atlantic basin track forecasts as a whole, but within 30 h of predicted landfall, timing errors demonstrate an early bias of 1.5–2.5 h. Landfall forecasts are most accurate for storms moving at oblique or normal angles to the coastline and slow-moving storms. During the last quarter century, after adjustment for forecast difficulty, no statistically significant improvement or degradation is noted for landfall position forecasts. Time of landfall forecasts indicate no degradation at any period and significant improvement for the 19–30-h period. The early bias and lack of improvement are consistent with a conservative or “least regret” forecast and warning strategy to acco...Keywords
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