Recreation growth rates: predictions and reality

Abstract
1974 predictions to 1980 of levels of certain indices of participation in outdoor recreation in Victoria are compared with the actual levels obtained. Despite the simplistic prediction model used (trend extrapolation), the results are encouragingly accurate, especially in view of recent changes in factors such as population growth, average household income and petrol prices. An attempt to build a statistical forecasting model based on these variables failed because of multi-collinearity in the data. New forecasts to 1985 are prepared using trend projection again. The results indicate that growth in most activities will be slower than before 1979.

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