CONTINUOUS ESTIMATION OF A TIME-VARYING PROBABILITY

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
This experiment examines the human ability to give a direct magnitude estimate of a time-varying probability. The subject positioned a ‘ tracking ’ lever at his estimate of the current mean of a sequentially displayed binary distribution. The distribution samples were presented at a fixed rate by two lights. The distribution mean changed in step increments of varying size and spacing. The experimental variables included flash rate and a constraint on the randomness of the flash series Detailed measures were made of both the transient and static responses to each stop change. The transient response was more rapid and consistent than had been anticipated. The average static response showed no systematic bias as a function of probability A descriptive model is derived which satisfies some basic properties of the task behaviour