Space, Time, and Dynamics Modeling in Historical GIS Databases: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

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Abstract
In this paper, a spatiotemporal interpolation approach for GIS modeling of urban growth dynamics is proposed. It is based on fuzzy logic theory using three different scenarios for temporal simulation, and two techniques for spatial simulation of urban change patterns. The notion of stages in the urban growth is taken into consideration as well as variables describing the speed and the mechanism of change. The simulation results are presented for three study sites from the north shore of the Montreal metropolitan area in Quebec, Canada, covering the period from 1956 to 1986. By comparing the simulation results with aerial photographs of the study area taken in 1958, 1971, 1975, and 1982, the proposed modeling approach is validated. The potential of this approach as a visualization technique is also discussed.