Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications
Open Access
- 24 October 2005
- journal article
- review article
- Published by The Royal Society in Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences
- Vol. 360 (1463) , 1991-1998
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1750
Abstract
The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.Keywords
This publication has 21 references indexed in Scilit:
- REPRESENTING MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTIONAnnual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2005
- Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in EuropeTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria modelTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balanceTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combinationTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic conceptTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecastsTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2005
- Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulationsNature, 2004
- Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climateNature, 2002
- Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction systemQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1999