Water supply reliability theory

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Abstract
Water supply system reliability can be defined in terms of the shortages that result from failures of a system's physical components. A reliability factor for a single failure or for a selected time period can be defined in terms of the capacity lost during failure, which is measured as a fraction of the demand rate or the demand volume. Since the lost capacity is a random variable, so is the reliability factor, and its probability density function can be derived analytically from that of the lost capacity. Reliability, defined as the probability that a given reliability factor will be achieved, can be increased by adding facilities, storage, pumping capacity, pipelines. The least‐cost combination of facilities can be identified from the cost functions and the probability distributions of the reliability factor.

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