A Possible Measure of Local Predictability

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Abstract
In this paper we suggest that the longevity of the enhanced predictability periods often observed in the weather and general circulation models can he quantified by a study of the statistical moments of error growth rates as has been demonstrated for dynamical systems. As an illustration, it is shown how this approach can he pursued in simple cases. For the Lorenz model, the probability density distribution of error growth is close to log-normal and the average growth rate is two times shorter than the most probable. In general, we argue that the ratio of the average growth rate to the most probable is a measure of enhanced predictability. Abstract In this paper we suggest that the longevity of the enhanced predictability periods often observed in the weather and general circulation models can he quantified by a study of the statistical moments of error growth rates as has been demonstrated for dynamical systems. As an illustration, it is shown how this approach can he pursued in simple cases. For the Lorenz model, the probability density distribution of error growth is close to log-normal and the average growth rate is two times shorter than the most probable. In general, we argue that the ratio of the average growth rate to the most probable is a measure of enhanced predictability.

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