IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

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Abstract
The impacts of a severe sustained drought on Colorado River system water resources were investigated by simulating the physical and institutional constraints within the Colorado River Basin and testing the response of the system to different hydrologic scenarios. Simulations using Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model compared a 38‐year severe sustained drought derived from 500 years of reconstructed streamflows for the Colorado River basin with a 38‐year streamflow trace extracted from the recent historic record. The impacts of the severe drought on streamflows, water allocation, storage, hydropower generation, and salinity were assessed. Estimated deliveries to consumptive uses in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and northern Arizona were heavily affected by the severe drought, while the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona suffered only slight shortages. Upper Basin reservoirs and streamflows were also more heavily affected than those in the Lower Basin by the severe drought. System‐wide, total hydropower generation was 84 percent less in the drought scenario than in the historical stream‐flow scenario. Annual, flow‐weighted salinity below Lake Mead exceeded 1200 ppm for six years during the deepest portion of the severe drought. The salinity levels in the historical hydrology scenario never exceeded 1100 ppm.

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