The uncertainty in ozone calculations by a stratospheric photochemistry model

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Abstract
At present, there is an apparent conflict between one‐dimensional stratospheric photochemistry models used in predicting ozone depletion and average data for stratospheric ozone. This conflict is in three particulars—column density of O3 and ozone density in the regions around 30 km and 50 km altitude. A study of the sensitivity of one such model to the values of reaction rates, boundary conditions, solar intensities, photolysis cross sections, and O(¹D) yield parameters reveals that even at the 2σ uncertainty limit due to these input parameters, the model does not overlap the data for O3 density at 30 km and 50 km. The data is outside the 1σ model uncertainty limit for O3 column density. The study also shows the relative contribution of the various parameters studied to the imprecision in these model results. Temperatures and eddy‐mixing coefficient could substantially affect these results but are not considered in this study.