ENERGY AND URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE: A REVIEW OF FORECASTING RESEARCH

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Abstract
This study examines methods of forecasting urban spatial structure from information on energy supply and cost. Five general forecasting approaches are identified, of which four are represented in the literature. Each forecasting approach incorporates a particular set of methods, techniques, and epistemological principles. Not surprisingly, the conclusions provided by the forecasting methods are correspondingly diverse. Empiricists conclude that a causal link between energy and urban structure has not been demonstrated. In contrast, researchers employing scenario construction and various modeling techniques generally accept a causal link between energy and urban structure, but disagree on the nature of future urban geographies.