The role of palaeoclimate studies: modelling

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Abstract
Stepping back from the topic of the meeting, I should like to begin by addressing the role of palaeoclimate studies in the subject of climate and its prediction. I do not believe that it is only by looking at the past that one can see into the future. However, I do believe that studies of past climates have an important role to play. To perform climate modelling and to compare the data from models with observations, one must have a conceptual framework. Important elements in this framework are the roles of continents, mountains, solar input and atmospheric composition. It must include notions of rapid change. For example, the response to increasing atmospheric CO2 may be very slow until a certain critical point when it becomes very rapid: the ‘Joker in the pack’. The possibility of multiple equilibria, more than one possible climate for the same external conditions, must be recognized. The average situation is essentially irrelevant in a system that spends almost all of its time in either of two equilibra.

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