Predicting early and intermediate-term outcome of coronary angioplasty in the elderly.

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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the technical success rate of coronary angioplasty in the elderly in high, very old patients have increased risk of procedure-related death and late recurrence of severe angina. We proposed to determine baseline variables that predict early and intermediate-term failure of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) in patients more than 65 so we could effectively stratify risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 982 patients at least 65 years old who had urgent or elective PTCA (1980 through 1990). Follow-up (mean, 25 months) was obtained for all patients. Multiple baseline variables were analyzed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression to select independent ones to fit predictive models for in-hospital death or myocardial infarction (overall rate, 6.3%), total in-hospital adverse outcome (overall rate, 18.7%), cumulative survival free of myocardial infarction (overall rate, 15% at 3 years), and cumulative survival free of late nonfatal myocardial infarction, bypass surgery, repeat PTCA, or recurrent severe angina (overall rate, 47% at 3 years). The most heavily weighted parameter in the probability regression equation for each end point was the number of diseased coronary artery segments with at least 70% stenosis. Advanced age was less important. The number of concomitant medical illnesses was predictive of late outcome but not early in-hospital events. Lowest risk quintile versus highest risk quintile event rate was 2.9% versus 14% for acute myocardial infarction or death and 17.2% versus 29% for cumulative in-hospital events. For posthospital events at 3 years' follow-up, lowest risk quintile death or myocardial infarction rate was 4% versus 33% for highest risk quintile. For cumulative late adverse events at 3 years, the event rate was 28% versus 63% for the highest risk quintile. CONCLUSIONS: These results stratify patients at high and low risk of early and intermediate-term success after PTCA and identify elderly patients in whom PTCA is most appropriate.