Use of Time-Series, Arima Designs to Assess Program Efficacy

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Abstract
The use of time-series designs for determining the efficacy of interventions is illustrated with fictitious data describing a drug-abuse prevention program. Time-series designs are appropriate for some situations in which it may not be possible to manipulate a treatment experimentally. Problems and procedures associated with time-series data analysis using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models are discussed. An example illustrates the application of ARIMA analysis for time-series data The problems associated with time-series and ARIMA procedures, and steps researchers can take to minimize these problems, are discussed.

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