Numerical Simulation as a Means of Warning for Near-Field Tsunamis

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Abstract
The feasibility of quantitatively forecasting a near-field tsunami prior to its arrival is examined, provided that the initial tsunami profile can be determined from fault parameters calculated using a method similar to that of Izutani and Hirasawa. Examination of basic equations, boundary conditions and grid lengths has led to the conclusion that the following combination is the best to perform rapid, accurate, and detailed numerical forecasting; the linear long wave theory discretized with the staggered leap-frog scheme, perfect reflection at the land boundary, and a grid length varying from 5.4 km out at deep sea to 0.2 km at the shoreline. With the aid of a super computer, tsunami heights along every 200 m of Japan's Sanriku coast (250 km long) can be obtained within 7 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. This method gives enough time for warning transmission and for evacuation of residents because the standard arrival time of tsunamis in this district is 25 to 30 minutes.

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