Initial Results of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest
- 1 April 2002
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Weather and Forecasting
- Vol. 17 (2) , 192-205
- https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0192:iroams>2.0.co;2
Abstract
Motivated by the promising results of global-scale ensemble forecasting, a number of groups have attempted mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF), focusing mainly over the eastern half of the United States. To evaluate the performance of mesoscale SREF over the Pacific Northwest and to test the value of using different initial analyses as a means of ensemble forecast generation, a five-member mesoscale SREF system was constructed in which the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) was run with initializations and forecast boundary conditions from major operational centers. The ensemble system was evaluated over the Pacific Northwest from January to June 2000. The model verification presented in this study considers only near-surface weather variables, especially the observed 10-m wind direction. The ensemble mean forecast displays lower mean absolute wind direction errors than the component ensemble members when av... Abstract Motivated by the promising results of global-scale ensemble forecasting, a number of groups have attempted mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF), focusing mainly over the eastern half of the United States. To evaluate the performance of mesoscale SREF over the Pacific Northwest and to test the value of using different initial analyses as a means of ensemble forecast generation, a five-member mesoscale SREF system was constructed in which the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) was run with initializations and forecast boundary conditions from major operational centers. The ensemble system was evaluated over the Pacific Northwest from January to June 2000. The model verification presented in this study considers only near-surface weather variables, especially the observed 10-m wind direction. The ensemble mean forecast displays lower mean absolute wind direction errors than the component ensemble members when av...Keywords
This publication has 48 references indexed in Scilit:
- MM5 Precipitation Verification over the Pacific Northwest during the 1997–99 Cool Seasons*Weather and Forecasting, 2000
- Joint Medium-Range Ensembles from The Met. Office and ECMWF SystemsMonthly Weather Review, 2000
- Tubing: An Alternative to Clustering for the Classification of Ensemble ForecastsWeather and Forecasting, 1999
- Impact of Ensemble Size on Ensemble PredictionMonthly Weather Review, 1998
- Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative PrecipitationMonthly Weather Review, 1997
- Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction SystemMonthly Weather Review, 1997
- New technology and numerical weather prediction — a wasted opportunity?Weather, 1993
- On the Use of Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Models in Operational ForecastingWeather and Forecasting, 1992
- Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional ModelJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1989
- Stochastic dynamic predictionTellus, 1969