Modelling and prediction of travel distance by car

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Abstract
A theoretical basis and empirical modelling and prediction results for Swedish travelling distances by car are given. The results form the basis for an assessment of the economic consequences of Swedish petrol price adjustments by region and travel type. Truncated regression models are estimated using a general distribution class specification and a robust estimator based on symmetric trimming. Predictors and prediction variances are given. The study confirms the hypothesis of a positive income effect for work and business travel distances. The effect is negative and significant for recreation distances. Travel distances tend to be shorter in less densely populated regions, i.e. a positive density effect. Males have significantly longer work and shopping trips. The differences between estimators and corresponding predictions are small.

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