Epidemic models featuring behaviour change
- 1 June 1995
- journal article
- general applied-probability
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Advances in Applied Probability
- Vol. 27 (04) , 960-979
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0001867800047765
Abstract
This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed population whose members are in either a high-risk or a low-risk activity group. Further, members of the high-risk group may change their behaviour by entering the low-risk group. Both stochastic and deterministic models are examined. A limiting model, appropriate when there is a large number of initially susceptible individuals, is used to provide a threshold analysis. The epidemic is compared to a single group epidemic, and to suitably parametrised two-group epidemics, using a coupling method. The total size distribution and effects of changing the behaviour change rate are considered.Keywords
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