Predictors of Long Term Care Facility Use among the Elderly

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Abstract
This research uses data from the Manitoba Longitudinal Study on Aging and multiple logistic regression analysis to assess the impact of twenty-eight sociodemographic and health status variables on nursing home admission. The results indicate that 1) all the short-term predictors continue to be significantly associated with facility bed use in the long run, suggesting that the high risk elderly can be identified relatively early; 2) the key sociodemographic characteristics are better predictors of admission than health and physical functioning characteristics; and 3) time itself appears to change the relationship of the study variables to admission.

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