Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability

1 March 1966

journal article
Published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics

Vol. HFE-7 (1) , 22-28
https://doi.org/10.1109/THFE.1966.231980

Abstract

This study explored the manner in which the desirability of an event influences its judged probability. Ss gave probability estimates for each of 5 events, only one of which could occur. Monetary payoffs, ranging from lose $5 to win $5, were contingent upon which event did occur. Desirability was found to bias probability estimates in a complex manner which varied systematically between Ss and between estimation trials. In general, it made estimates less reasonable. Rewards for accuracy did not reduce value biases. Instead, they encouraged ``risk-reducing pessimism.'' Individual differences were an important source of variance. Some Ss were consistently optimistic. Others were quite pessimistic.

Keywords

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