Evaluating Five Models of Human Colonization

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Abstract
Five patterns for the human colonization of unoccupied regions are tested for viability by the use of a new stochastic band simulation program, called ETHNOPOP ©, that incorporates four demographic variables: (1) sex ratio at birth, (2) distribution of sibships, (3) maternal risk of giving birth, and (4) risk of death; as well as three cultural variables: (1) marriage choice, (2) polygyny, and (3) marriage pool. It was discovered that small colonizing bands initially undergo a Stochastic Crisis because of a demographic version of the Sewall Wright Effect, followed most often by a Malthusian Takeoff in population size if fertility rates are high enough. Of the models tested, it was discovered that the "string of pearls" model, in which bands are arrayed along a stream or coastline, is the most viable colonizing pattern, and that the "outpost" model, in which a band has no contiguous bands, and the "beachhead" model, in which a group of bands are clustered against a body of water, should be subsumed under the "pulse" model, in which successive waves of colonists enter a previously unoccupied area,[colonization, modeling, simulation, sex ratio, fertility]