Prospective study of human immunodeficiency virus 1-related disease among 512 infants born to infected women in New York City

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Abstract
To determine the incidence of HIV-1-related clinical findings, mortality and predictors of death in a cohort of HIV-exposed infants followed from birth. Data were collected approximately bimonthly during the first and second year of life and used in Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards survival analyses to predict time to the development of symptoms and death. One hundred sixteen infected and 396 uninfected infants were followed for a median of 26 months at 7 New York City hospitals from 1986 to 1995. Two or more nonspecific HIV-related symptoms, AIDS or death occurred in 83% of infected children by the first year. Fifty infected infants (43%) developed AIDS and 19 (38%) of these had Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. Estimated median age at AIDS/death was 30 months and 64% of infected children remained alive and AIDS-free at 1 year. Estimated infant mortality among infected children was 160/1000 live births, and median survival after AIDS was 21 months; 55% of infected children survived > 12 months after diagnosis of AIDS. P. carinii pneumonia was the most common cause of death. Although birth CD4 values did not predict AIDS or death, CD4 counts as early as 6 months of age were highly correlated with both. Thirteen (68%) of 19 infants who remained AIDS-free up to 3 to 6 months of age with CD4 count < or = 1500 cells/microliters subsequently developed AIDS vs. 18 (30%) of 61 with CD4 count > 1500 (P = 0.0001). Most HIV-1-infected infants develop disease in the first year of life. AIDS or death can be predicted by a threshold CD4 count of 1500 cells/microliters at 3 to 6 months of age.