Spatial self-organization and persistence of transients in a metapopulation model

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Abstract
We extend the analysis of a previously published type of model representing a linear set of habitat fragments each of which supports populations which reproduce in (synchronized) discrete generations. The populations are linked by a dispersal phase which occurs after each reproductive bout. Previously, this model has been shown to produce transient behaviour lasting thousands of generations and characterized by sudden changes in behaviour. We confirm the existence of these effects and characterize the conditions under which they are likely to occur. We also demonstrate that the model predicts organized spatial heterogeneity across the system. This means that the dynamics of the ensemble can be a poor predictor of the behaviour of individual populations, and further, that different populations within the same linked system can experience quantitatively very different dynamics. We also demonstrate that the model predicts that the peripheral populations should be subject to greater temporal variation than the interior. We discuss the appropriateness of the model to a variety of natural systems and the implications of its predictions.