Tideline and Turn: Possible Reasons for the Continuing Low HIV Prevalence among Glasgow's Injecting Drug Users

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Abstract
This is an early report of data from an on-going, repeated, cross-sectional study of a community sample of Glasgow injecting drug users. Although HIV was first detected among Glasgow's drug injectors in 1985, data from the first two years of our annual samples (1990 and 1991) indicate that HIV prevalence continues to be low in this population, in the order of 1 or 2 per cent. Possible reasons for this apparent continuing low prevalence are examined. It is suggested that substantial risk reduction – reductions in injection equipment-sharing, reductions in numbers of sharing partners and restrictions in social circles of sharing partners – may have been sufficient reasons, in conjunction with limited contributions to near-stabilisation from the disproportionate attrition of the numerator population through death and cessation of injecting.