Modelling the spread of penicillin‐resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day‐care and evaluation of intervention

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Abstract
In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin‐resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day‐care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day‐care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day‐care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day‐care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.