MATHEMATICAL-MODELS IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS .1. APPLICATION TO CHOLERA EPIDEMIC IN BARI IN 1973

  • 1 January 1977
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 19  (2) , 193-208
Abstract
An analysis of the [human] cholera epidemic which occurred in Bari, Italy in 1973 was carried out under the assumption that the main infection source was the widespread consumption of raw fish. The analysis was based on a chain-binomial model which appeared suitable to describe the epidemic. A statistical evaluation of the parameters of the model confirmed the intial hypothesis, due to the observed rapid decreasing of the probability of infection which occurred immediately after the disinfection of the sewage going into the sea.

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