An Empirical study of the Economic Effects of Climate Change on World Agriculture

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Abstract
The economic effects of a doubling of carbon dioxide levels on world agriculture under what are termed "optimistic" and "pessimistic" crop response scenarios are empirically estimated. These effects include both changes in the prices of agricultural commodities as a result of changes in domestic agricultural yields, and changes in economic welfare following altered pricing and trade patterns of agricultural commodities. Under both scenarios, with a few exceptions, the effects on national economic welfare are found to be quite modest. However, prices of agricultural commodities are estimated to rise considerably under the pessimistic scenario. Increased agricultural prices reduce consumer surplus and diminish the benefits from climate change that some countries with predicted positive yield effects would otherwise receive.
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