Do Black Holes Really Evaporate Thermally?

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Abstract
The Raychaudhuri equation is used to analyze the effect of the Hawking radiation back reaction upon a black-hole event horizon. It is found that if the effective stress-energy tensor of the Hawking radiation has negative energy density as expected, then an evaporating black hole initially a solar mass in size must disappear in less than a second. This implies that either the evaporation process, if it occurs at all, must be quite different from what is commonly supposed, or else black-hole event horizons—and hence black holes—do not exist.